Terms of Reference

Project title: Blue Ribbon Advisory and Analytical Centre

Post Title: 1^st Consultant for the Theoretical Part, Comprehensive Assessment of Fiscal Stability in Ukraine

Duration: July – December 2007

Duty Station: Kyiv, Ukraine

1. Background Information

The Blue Ribbon Advisory and Analytical Centre (BRAAC) was created in 2005 to assist Ukrainian authorities in implementation of recommendations of the Blue Ribbon Commission for Ukraine. Since that time, BRAAC supported the government, local administrations and other stakeholders in improving macroeconomic policies, business environment for SMEs, WTO accession process, fight on corruption and other important issues of Ukraine’s reforms.

2. Objectives of the Task

BRAAC was approached directly and through other counterparts by the Division of Medium Term Strategy and Fiscal Stability of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine with a request to develop a framework for evaluation of fiscal stability in Ukraine. This proposal is the response to the request.

The conventional framework of assessing fiscal position does not catch a range of risks that endanger fiscal stability in Ukraine. For example, the size of debt in relation to GDP has been relatively low and declining. The budget deficit (of about 2% in 2005) has been also below conventional benchmarks for fiscal sustainability.

Yet, the fiscal situation in Ukraine is precarious because there exist a range of risks that can drive the fiscal sphere severely out of balance. Currently, the Ministry of Finance is not prepared to efficiently address such risks, as it does not have a framework for assessment of risks and their possible consequences. The Ministry has created a Division of Medium Term Strategy and Fiscal Stability, yet this division does not have a methodology to carry out such assessments. Given the imminence and gravity of risks for fiscal stability in Ukraine, it is imperative to develop the capacity of the Ministry of Finance for timely assessment and response to risks.

BRAAC intends to help the Ministry of Finance with developing a framework for assessment of risks for fiscal stability. Fiscal stability assessment can become a part of the budget planning process, so that the budget plan would take into account risks and scenarios outlined in the risk assessment document. Also, the same framework can be used for monitoring in the process of budget execution. It will also allow assessing major medium- and long-term effects of current policies (either changes in policies or their status quo), which should become a part of budget programming.

3. General Description of Expected Outputs

The main output of the activity will be an analytical report. In production of the output, the contractor will be expected to work closely with the Division of Medium Term Strategy and Fiscal Stability of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. It will also be required to involve external experts and to conduct consultations with other organizations working in the field, in particular with the IMF.

The report is expected to offer a framework for fiscal stability assessment. It has to contain a theoretical overview of approaches for assessment of fiscal stability. It should also analyse Ukrainian specifics. The report will also contain recommendations, including quantitative indicators, simulation exercises and qualitative assessment.

Once the report is prepared, the contractor will be expected to work with the Ministry of Finance on practical application of the developed framework.

Finally, a sample fiscal stability assessment based on the proposed indicators and techniques should be prepared together with the Ministry of Finance.

4. Scope of the task

The consultant should contribute to development of theoretical part of the report and to elaboration of the sample fiscal stability assessment.

4.1. Inception phase (2 days): (i) contribute and comment to the developed methodology and workplan of the study; (ii) participate at a kick-of meeting

4.2. Theoretical part development (20 days): contribute to writing of the theoretical part of the report according to the developed workplan.

4.3. Simulations and quantitative assessments (5 days): comment on the results of the simulations exercises.

4.4. Elaboration of sample fiscal stability assessment (12 days): (i) contribute to development of the sample of fiscal stability assessment; (ii) contribute to development of recommendations; (iii) comment on the final draft of the report.

4.5. Presentation and dissemination (5 days): assist project coordinator in organization of logistical issues related to translation and editing of the report, publication of the report, dissemination of the materials, organization of presentation of the research results.

5. Qualifications

• Advanced University Degree in Economics or Econometrics;
• Minimum 3 years of highly relevant professional experience
• Excellent analytical and writing reports skills
• Fluent to communicate effectively in English, Ukrainian, both in writing and in oral form.

6. Additional information

These are locally recruited positions that do not entail expatriation benefits. Local staff salary and benefits will apply.

Applications (most recent CVs in EU format in the English language with the reference “SHORT-TERM CONSULTANT ON COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF FISCAL STABILITY IN UKRAINE: 1^st Consultant for the Theoretical Part” are to be submitted to e-mail address: vacancies@undp.org.ua

DEADLINE FOR APPLICATIONS IS 20 August 2007.

UNDP will use a transparent and competitive screening process, though will only contact those applicants in whom there is further interest. Applications may only be submitted for specific vacancy. We regret that we will not be able to acknowledge all unsolicited general applications for employment.